Abortion has surged as a key issue for women and Democrats for the Nov. 7 legislative elections in Virginia, the last state in the South to hold out against restrictions on the procedure in the year since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll.
The election will decide whether Virginia remains a relatively liberal outlier among Southern states in areas such as guns, LGBTQ+ rights and criminal justice, or whether Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) can enact a conservative agenda that includes a ban on abortion after 15 weeks, with exceptions. Virginia’s off-year contests are the country’s only major races this year and could signal the national political mood heading into the 2024 presidential election.
With all 140 General Assembly seats on the ballot, Youngkin has prioritized winning full Republican control of the House of Delegates and state Senate as he weighs a last-minute run for president. He continues to get good marks from Virginians for his performance in office.
But registered voters are roughly divided when asked whether they favor a generic Democrat on the House of Delegates ballot over a Republican — at 47 percent to 43 percent, respectively — with an even tighter two-point gap among likely voters. Separately, 48 percent of all voters say they view united Republican control as a “bad thing” and 43 percent view it as a “good thing.”
Interest in the elections is running high across the board. Nearly 2 in 3 registered voters (65 percent) say they are following Virginia’s upcoming election very or somewhat closely, up from 47 percent who said this in late September 2019 but lower than 79 percent just before the 2021 election for governor. Still, just about 1 in 5 are following this year’s elections “very closely” (22 percent).
That could translate into strong turnout, with 71 percent of registered voters saying they are certain to vote and another 7 percent saying they have already cast their ballot.
But Youngkin’s push to convince Republicans to embrace early voting through his “Secure Your Vote” campaign, after years of GOP lawmakers working against the effort to expand absentee voting in Virginia, does not seem to have had a significant effect. Among voters who identify as Republican, 65 percent say they intend to cast their ballot on Election Day while 32 percent say they have voted early or plan to.
Those numbers are almost identical to Virginia Republican performance in the 2021 election for governor and the 2020 presidential race. Half of Democrats plan to vote in person on Election Day, while roughly the same share say they’ll vote early or have already voted.
Heightened interest in abortion following last year’s Supreme Court decision to overturn the protections of Roe has driven big wins for Democrats in races around the country over the past year, and the issue is a significant motivator for Virginia voters as well. Sixty percent of registered voters say abortion is “very important” to their vote this year, up 14 percentage points since 2019.
That increase is driven in part by women, who make up more than half the electorate; 70 percent of women rate abortion as a very important issue, up from 47 percent in 2019. The percent of men that emphasize the issue has increased slightly to 50 percent from 45 percent in 2019.
The issue’s elevation is also driven by a 30-point increase among Democrats who say it is very important (from 47 percent in 2019 to 77 percent this year) and a 12-point rise among independents (from 40 percent to 52 percent). Republican voters have not moved, with 53 percent saying abortion is a very important issue now compared with 52 percent in 2019.
Despite abortion’s increasing importance among women, Democrats are struggling to reach the level of support from female voters that President Biden had in the 2020 election. The Post-Schar School poll finds women support Democratic legislative candidates by 12 points over Republicans this year, compared with Biden’s 24-point advantage over Trump in polling before the 2020 election.
“The abortion issue, I think, is the one that could potentially bring out the Democratic base in bigger numbers,” said Mark J. Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, which co-sponsored the poll with The Post.
But the effect is not likely to be the same on independent voters — even though they trust Democrats more than Republicans on abortion — because they continue to rank that issue behind matters that they trust the GOP with, such as crime and the economy, Rozell said.
“At a time when people are concerned about gasoline prices, grocery prices — they’re watching on the news every single day stories about crime in the cities — the Republicans seem to have the political message that people are feeling in their everyday lives,” he said. “So unless people perceive that there is a direct, immediate threat — and that’s the case Democrats have to make — to abortion rights, I think many of the swing voters will prioritize other issues.”
By a six-point margin, voters as a whole say they trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle education, an issue that 70 percent of voters call “very important” to their vote for the legislature this year.
But Republicans have wider trust advantages on other issues that large majorities of voters say are important. The economy is very important to 68 percent of voters, who trust Republicans over Democrats in that area by 12 points. Crime and safety is very important to 64 percent of voters, who trust the GOP over Democrats by 13 points. For gun policy, which 62 percent of voters say is very important, Republicans have a five-point edge.
Democrats have even wider trust advantages on abortion and transgender issues, 17 points in both cases. But fewer voters rank transgender issues as very important — 34 percent.
The Virginia GOP initially hailed the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision by the Supreme Court to return abortion rights to the states as an opportunity to place restrictions, with Youngkin calling immediately for Virginia lawmakers to pass a 15-week ban with exceptions for rape, incest and cases in which the pregnant person’s life is at risk.
Those efforts stalled in the General Assembly because of opposition from Democrats who control the Senate and reticence among Republicans, who lead the House, to take up the politically risky issue in an election year. Virginia law allows abortion through the second trimester — about 26 weeks — but prohibits it in the third trimester unless three doctors agree it’s necessary to protect the pregnant person’s life or physical or mental health.
Reminded of those details, about half of Virginia voters say the law should remain as it is, while 24 percent say the law should be loosened. Another 24 percent say the law should be more strict. When the question was asked in March without that context, a larger share of Virginia voters said they wanted the laws to be less strict (41 percent). But the current figures are similar to October 2021, before Roe was overturned.
Republican voters are divided, with 48 percent wanting Virginia abortion laws to be more strict and 45 percent wanting them to remain the same. Democrats are split the other way — 48 percent want them to stay the same, while 46 percent want them less strict.
Among independents, 52 percent want Virginia abortion laws to stay as they are, while 27 percent want them to be more strict and 18 percent want them to be less strict.
Despite expressing broad support for the current law, Virginians are split on Youngkin’s 15-week proposal, with 46 percent in favor and 47 percent opposed to it. Feelings are intense, with 31 percent strongly in support and 37 percent strongly in opposition. Those numbers are little changed from March.
Rozell said the governor’s strategy might strike swing voters as a compromise more palatable than the abortion bans adopted in every other Southern state since the fall of Roe.
“Fifteen weeks, that’s kind of middle of the road. I could go for that,” said Robert Kinskey, an independent in his 60s who lives in Norfolk and said he would not like to see the procedure banned entirely.
But Democrats such as Kadijat Suara suspect Republicans are not being honest about their ultimate goal, which might be a stricter than 15 weeks — if not a total ban.
During his 2021 campaign for governor, Youngkin went mum on abortion after securing the GOP nomination on a promise to “protect the life of every Virginia child born and unborn.” A surreptitious video recording made by a liberal activist captured him saying that he would go “on offense” against abortion if he won the Executive Mansion but that he had to keep his views quiet for fear of alienating independents.
Days after announcing his 15-week ban in June 2022, he indicated to a conservative group that he would push for stricter limits if Republicans won the General Assembly, promising to “happily and gleefully” sign “any bill” to “protect life.”
John Stirrup, a Republican running for the House of Delegates in a purple Northern Virginia district, was recorded this year saying he would support a “100 percent” and “total” ban on abortion. When the recordings surfaced in August, Stirrup told The Post that he would push for the 15-week ban, which he described as “a consensus position.”
“It’s scary,” said Suara, a 24-year-old engineer from Chesterfield, south of Richmond. “Once you let them start shortening it down, it’s a process. It will take years to do it, but … this will be the start” of a complete ban.
Overall, 51 percent of registered voters think Republicans seek too many restrictions on abortion, with 46 percent saying the Republican position is “extreme.” On the other end, 40 percent say Democrats favor too much access to abortion, with 32 percent calling the Democratic position “extreme.”
Candidates from both parties have sought to paint the other as extremists on a range of issues this year. Kinskey, who is retired from the Navy civil service and Army Reserve, said he has voted for Democrats in the past, including state Sen. Lionell Spruill Sr. (D-Chesapeake). But he will cast his ballot for Republicans this fall, in part because Spruill was ousted in the June Democratic primary by a more outspokenly liberal candidate, Sen. L. Louise Lucas (Portsmouth).
“The Democrats, they’re too radical, they’re too far out there,” he said, adding that he thought the party was “trying to be too much like California” with its green energy goals.
Independent Jared Reese of Alexandria plans to vote for Democrats for the legislature this year because he thinks Republicans on the national level — the politics he pays the most attention to — have become extremists on abortion and library books.
“The Republican Party is just out of control right now,” said Reese, 28, a government consultant. Reese thinks Democrats also have extremists in their ranks but feels they do not control that party the way the MAGA fringe dominates the GOP, pointing to the tumultuous speakership battle playing out just across the Potomac in the House of Representatives.
Overall, 54 percent of Virginia voters approve of Youngkin’s job performance while 38 percent disapprove. His ratings are similar to his 52 percent-39 percent split in March, and slightly better than what Democrat Ralph Northam had near the end of his term as governor (52 percent approved, 41 percent disapproved).
Both of their approval ratings are well below the average for Virginia governors before Youngkin: Past governors enjoyed a net positive 30-point approval rating in Post polls (61 percent to 31 percent), peaking with Democrat Mark R. Warner (59 points positive in 2005).
Youngkin’s approval rating, though, is far more positive than Biden’s among Virginia voters — Biden is underwater with 55 percent disapproving and 43 percent approving.
Youngkin gets high marks from voters for his handling of the economy, with 56 percent approving and 31 percent disapproving. On education — a signature Youngkin issue with his “Parents Matter” campaign — Youngkin is net positive with 50 percent approving and 41 disapproving, exactly where he was in the March poll.
Youngkin is underwater on his handling of abortion and transgender issues, but his approval rating has improved somewhat on transgender issues since earlier this year: 37 percent approve of his transgender policies, compared with 30 percent approval in March. Disapproval remains steady at 43 percent. On abortion, his approval rating has ticked up from 33 percent in March to 37 percent now; his disapproval remains at 45 percent for that issue as well.
Despite Youngkin’s popularity, most Virginian Republicans are not eager to see him jump to the national stage and run for president. Among Republican and Republican-leaning Virginia voters, 54 percent say they would prefer Donald Trump to be the party’s nominee for president instead of their own GOP governor, while 39 percent would rather Youngkin win the nomination. There are sharp divisions along ideological lines and between those with stronger and weaker ties to the party.
Youngkin is preferred to Trump among moderate and liberal Republican-leaning voters by 53 percent to 39 percent. But Trump’s support rises to 54 percent among somewhat conservative voters and 63 percent among very conservative voters.
Trump leads by about 2 to 1 among self-identified Republicans (60 percent vs. 33 percent), while independents who lean Republican are split about evenly between Youngkin (48 percent) and Trump (44 percent). Virginia doesn’t have party registration, and independents often make up a significant share of the Republican primary electorate.
“It demonstrates the continuing hold that Trump has on the Republican base … [if] even in Virginia, with a relatively popular governor, Trump would beat the native son candidate in a head-to-head race,” Rozell said.
In far southwest Virginia, Republican Pam Hall would welcome a second Trump administration; she’d like to see Trump finish building a wall on the border with Mexico and bring more manufacturing jobs back to the United States.
Hall, 56, who lives in rural Russell County and works in accounting at a college, is open to another Republican nominee, but she hasn’t been impressed so far by any of the GOP contenders who’ve taken part — without Trump — in the party’s presidential debates.
Still, Hall does not think Youngkin should throw his hat into the ring, even though she thinks the governor is doing a good job.
“I think he needs to stay in Virginia at this time,” she said. “You can’t come in and just make a few little corrections and just leave.”
The poll was conducted by The Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, Oct. 11 to 16, among a random sample of 1,181 registered voters in Virginia drawn from a statewide voter database. Live caller interviewers reached respondents on cellphones and landlines, other respondents were reached via text message and invited to take the survey online. The overall margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.